What is going to happen in Afghanistan

Apparently, the last scene is going on in Afghanistan, the curtain is about to fall. The main characters are ready to go. What is left and what is to come in the future and the last shock will shake us all for many years to come.

Uncertainties in the region and civil war could erupt in Afghanistan. The change in proxies has been going on for a long time and will play a role in the future. There are many faces of military, political, moral, social and economic defeat. The United States and NATO are watching.

The most important thing is the defeat of America's moral standing at the hands of tribal forces armed with pick-up trucks and small arms. Sitting down with so-called terrorist networks and talking about peace raises questions about the morality of the war. There are many implications of the Taliban's psychological superiority. Perhaps the most appropriate lesson in these last 20 years is the one-sidedness of the Taliban. It is almost impossible to defeat an ideology unless the leaders betray it.

Neighboring countries will need to focus on the possible outcome of the expected unrest. Therefore, Pakistan should keep an eye on the threat posed by it, which is still ongoing. Negotiations and evacuation schedules seem to be busier. The explanation will help us prepare. The answer to this question will have many facets, but it will be necessary to determine what can be gained from the wreckage of the Western occupation.

In the political arena, a government is possible in Kabul with the support of the Northern Alliance. However, the Northern Alliance's own line of defense does not consider Kabul as its capital. Its geographical line covers Panjshir Valley, Dara Salang, Badakhshan, Bamyan, Surrey, Balkh, Jawzjan, Faryab and Herat. The Northern Alliance does not care if Kabul falls to the Taliban.

The eastern provinces of Nuristan, Kunar, Nangarhar and Paktika are strongholds of ISIS, Khorasan and the Pakistani Taliban. The Haqqani network has a strong presence in the east, but also in Kabul, Ghazni, Wardak, Paktia and Khost in central Afghanistan. The Taliban are spread over a wide area where government troops avoid going.

Although there is no demarcation between the two, Kabul is still a safe distance from this imaginary line. It is also clear that the United States never wanted to bring the inter-Afghan talks to a consensus. Zalmai Khalilzad has been deceived from the beginning. This apparent weakness is evident in the sudden announcement by the United States to leave the country by September 11.

The race for fresh proxies will keep all neighboring countries busy. The fact that a few thousand American contractors are left behind to get important information makes the game very interesting. The secret agenda makes it clear that peace in Afghanistan is not the goal but the real goal of China, Pakistan and C-Pac. These forces will have to fight the Taliban and the Haqqani Network to gain a foothold in Pashtun areas. In this regard, TTP, ISIS and even Al Qaeda can be useful. President Ashraf Ghani, Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Mohibullah Mohib seem to support this view.

Now we have a sketch of what is left. The areas that will be left behind by the American contractors need to be identified. Such areas may be some areas of Nuristan, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktia, Paktika and Zabul along our border. In the south of Pakistan, they may try to stop the progress of C-Pak and in the north, local insurgency in the Pashtun belt. Pakistan may have to resort to Taliban and Haqqani links.

The United States will leave Afghanistan in more pieces than it did two decades ago. This proves Pakistan's position correct. The United States should have started talks with the Taliban a decade or so ago.

To understand the security situation around Kabul, one has to look at the commanders of the Northern Plains who have so far been with the Panjshiri and Northern Alliance. These commanders, of Tajik, Pashtun and Arab descent, protect their territories from Kotal Khair Khana in Kabul's Dara Salang to Jabal Siraj. These six or seven commanders do not want to fight anymore but can do so under pressure. That is the key to defending Kabul.

When this door is opened, it will pave the way for the fall of Kabul and the failure of the Northern Alliance. A similar situation was witnessed in September 1996 when Ahmad Shah Massoud retreated without a fight. The agreement between the Taliban and the Northern Commanders has the potential to prevent unrest in C-Pak and Pakistan.

The manner in which the Taliban have launched operations indicates that they are in a hurry to capture Kabul. The day the Taliban receive free rockets, surface-to-air missile systems or multi-barrel launchers, things could change. Kabul's defense forces can avoid fighting the Taliban.

The aspects of the situation so far are as follows:

1. The United States will leave behind a broken environment.

2. A geographical distribution is visible.

3. C-Pack will be targeted in Pakistan, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

4. The Kabul government will continue to defame Islamabad despite its good intentions.

5. TTP / ISIS and Al Qaeda can be used in KP and Balochistan. Movements like PTM can cause problems.

6. Weakening the TTP through amnesty is just a dream. These are the assets of others.

8. The weakening grip of the Kabul government could affect the funding and commitment of the TTP.

9 The Northern Alliance has repeatedly turned down Islamabad's offer. They will not change, but Pakistan must continue its efforts.

10 Pakistan should use regional cooperation organizations such as the SCO for peace in Afghanistan and for representation of all races.

11. Iran, India, and Russia will not back down from supporting their proxies in Afghanistan. Pakistan should be aware of this. The region will remain in a state of uncertainty and Pakistani policymakers must take steps to achieve their goals.

Afghanistan's steadfastness in the Afghanistan peace process, its unwavering insistence on dialogue with the Taliban, confirms the government's understanding of the situation from the outset. Pakistan has paid more than its share. The Pakistan Army has bravely fought this terrorism. Its battalion is serving in more operational areas than any other army in the world.

Aren't interests always supreme? The time to come will be difficult, Afghanistan is in danger of becoming a battleground for proxies and non-governmental elements. The need is for Pakistan to redefine its long-term goals.

Note: This article is based on the personal opinion of the author and the institution does not have to agree with it. The author has served at the Pakistani Embassy in Kabul.